Why IPL can be a big flop?

I believe Modi will bite dust faster than the Force 1 Formula engine at Melbourne just the other day. Here's why:

1) Modi's flawed business model can be seen from his principal objective; can cricket or any sport ever be reduced to a reality show? It is easy to fill a TV studio with a dozen inanimate cardboard characters, but can you confidently guarantee a full or even three-fourths stadium from the paying public? By the way, will you ever watch a reality TV show where the studio seats are near empty? That has been ICL's undoing, really.

The hard reality is that if the local crowds don't come in, TV viewership will drop dramatically simultaneously as well. And herein lies the challenge for the haughty BCCI bosses. Do you really think people will go back to watch 6-7 matches within a short period of a few weeks in the same stadium, paying big monies (how does the Franchisee recover their investment otherwise?????) in the prime of sweltering Indian summer? The law of diminishing returns will hit IPL faster than you can imagine.

2) In fact, albeit ICL looks like a distinct commercial flop, it is got a high nuisance value for IPL. As any casual observer will ask, what will be the big differentiating factor between IPL and ICL? Frankly, other than the fact that there will be more superstar heroes, nothing unique will really be on offer, unless IPL does live spectator auction as well or Niranjan Shah performs shirtless, a rap number. But seriously, the excess hype and fatigue-factor will seep in with rapid penetration. Expect it.

3) Even if we assume that the first year gets moderate results, the ongoing success of the IPL League is dependent crucially on "second-year" repeat performance, sans the standard novelty and hype accompanying the launch. It is interesting to note that the BCCI has not asked for a clear playing "open window" (maybe they are negotiating a deal with Microsoft) for next year? Why? Is it on account of Franchise pressures? If a league cannot be held with 110% certainty in a fixed given calendar period and is going to be a conveniently shifting one, it is not a league at all. The Franchisees have serious worries on this front, unless they are themselves orchestrating this.

4) I was at CCI watching the India-Australia T20 match (where MS Dhoni kept flashing his toothy smile everytime Miss Deepika Padukone scratched her armpits), and even the abbreviated version had many disappointed patrons. Not "paisa vasool yaar", was what the majority uttered. Remember, we area a "value for money" country. To many, the T20 is like paying for a lunch buffet but being restricted to just the salad bar. And no amount of hour- glass figure, hip-shaking cheer-leaders may compensate for their feeling of financial loss should they find the 3 hour excursion a painfully unexciting affair. Somewhere, it is a Catch 22 situation. T20 may give quick results, but hey, we are used to watching Sachin Tendulkar bat for 40 overs, no??? And what if we have more results like that terrible MCG fiasco when India were bowled out for 74 runs? My feeling is that the average man expects a minimum score of 160 runs for that elusive "paisa vasool feeling". And Yuvraj Singh had better watch out if he hits only 5 sixes an over. Too much hype, skyrocketing expectations; a crash is foreseeable.

5) Let's just put the record straight. IPL is not the EPL (English Premier League). In fact, it is far from it. Here you have the preposterous situation of just 10 playing countries to choose from, not 200. Secondly, in football the players play official national competitions rarely, with the World Cup every 4 years being the major international event. People probably know Cristiano Ronaldo more as a Manchester United player than a Portugese one. In cricket, it is just the complete reverse; you cannot build club-city loyalty playing 6 weeks of summer cricket, with team compositions totally dependent on player availability. Funnily, it is so India centric that all skippers are Indian players, even with Graeme Smith and Ricky Ponting being around. It won't work. In IPL you also have popular but retired players, and those kissing superannuation; so where is the bitter competitiveness on-field likely to come in from?

6) One of the biggest challenges (so far quietly brushed under the flying carpet) will be frequent injuries, body break-downs of over-worked aging bodies? Contrary to popular assumption, it is the shorter version of the game that can be more intense physically, given little respite and rest and more reflex requirements of the game. Suddenly, no one is worried about physical burn-out, but biological age will soon catch -up , as will unfit limbs. Ishant Sharma and Zaheer Khan have already question marks over their fitness. Expect early retirements and long lay-offs.

7) I will be surprised if the other financially crumbling cricket boards don't gang -up and demand a share of the IPL booty. International cricket is already in financial doldrums. And you cannot blame the poor players trying to capitalise on bonus payments in the near-end phase of their professional careers? So naturally, the West Indians care a damn for the Frank Worrel trophy, they rather earn a handsome stipend. New Zealand does not have a pool left,as half the country's population is participating in the ICL. Sri Lanka is surviving on peanuts thrown by BCCI. Pakistan is near bankrupt. Expect Australia and England to create mini-leagues, and in fact, draw away Indian players to that format. But then what happens to the famous annual Test and ODI cricket calendar? It is evident that the ICC has under-sold its powers to BCCI at rock bottom-rates. What else explains the fact that the other Boards will earn nothing from the BCCI coffers swelling with IPL cash? And why is ICC not approving ICL? How can BCCI, itself a private body (???) have a monopoly over a national sport, and how can ICC endorse this flagrant contravention of fundamental rights? It's a shame. It's a scandal.

8) SRK is the wisest franchise owner. Even as Mukesh Ambani wrestles with holding the Mumbai matches at the DY Patil stadium, the Eden Gardens will earn SRK record gate money thanks to its humongous capacity. Given Sourav Ganguly's soaring popularity in his home-town and the Bengali's love for the game, Devdas might actually not end up hitting the bottle at all. Because he will be hitting the jackpot instead. But how does that explain the silly back-office anomalies? It is now obvious that BCCI had promised the swank CCI to it's Mumbai Indians franchise owners, without even being aware that the prestigious club rules contravene IPL requirements. Clearly, there will be many a slip between the upper and the lower lip before the tournament actually commences on April 18, 2008. And this will impact the net success of IPL.

9) Expect the return of big time private illegal betting industry as match-fixing can become rampant with multi-colored clothes, music video wars, team anthems, commercial deals, sponsorship rights etc likely to dominate proceedings as much as the on-filed extravaganza. P Chidambram, Finance Minister can probably fund the Rs 60,000 crore farmers debt by legalizing the betting business itself. One bad news, and brand IPL can come crashing down.

10) Lastly, expect Ekta Kapoor and gang to come up with their own trump cards. Remember, serial lovers do not like distractions, interruptions or take a hiatus from their regular dose of trauma, tension and tonsillitis. Their travel and holiday plans, dinner hours, even daily prayers etc are subjected to detailed scrutiny to keep their appointment with the saas, bahu or beta as the case might be. IPL will not necessarily substitute traditional loyal sitcom, soppy, tearjerker, melodrama-obsessed audience; it can at best hope to create a new one. And that may be a Herculean task. Because even Bollywood likes to have big summer releases, please note.

Modi may have bitten off more than he can chew. But for the moment he rides a wave on cultivated optimism. And obviously, a sack of cash.

But should IPL fall flat, his Kolkota franchise owner SRK may be tempted to ask him: "Aap paanchvi pass ho sakte ho kya? (Can you pass the fifth standard?).

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