New Delhi: Wednesday promises to be one of the most complex days in the ICC Champions Trophy 2009 in South Africa for the Indian team amidst mathematical calculations and pressure to beat West Indies by a big margin.
"First of all you want Pakistan to win, Australia to lose. Then you want to win against West Indies and you have to better your run rate. So there are quite a few things that involves stats. But we have quite a few number of support stuff at the same time. So you turn to engage more into that and I look to concentrate on the things I need to do on the field," said India captain M S Dhoni on eve of the crucial match against West Indies. Continue reading below
Australia, on the other hand, are desperate to get their No. 1 ODI team status back, especially now that South Africa are out of race. "We want to be number one again. That's what every player plays for," says Australia skipper Ricky Ponting.
But that's not going to be easy against rapidly improving Pakistan who are more keen to see India in the finals. "We don't want to lose," Pakistan skipper Younis Khan said, promising his side will try its best to beat Australia in the high voltage encounter.
However, Dhoni's men will have their task cut out when they play at The Wanderers for the first time in the tournament, knowing fully well that even a wash out in either of the games will send them packing.
So exactly how will the math work? How can India sneak into the semis? What are the different scenarios that are possible? We tried to answer some of these questions.
A difference of 2.08 between the net run-rates of India and Australia looks huge on paper, but it is based on the results of each match. India need to make up for 104 runs. Thus, if Australia lose by 20 runs, India will need to win by 85 runs. And, if Australia lose by 104 runs, a one-run win will be sufficient for India.
Scenario 1: Australia lose and India win chasing 250
If Australia are restricted to 200, Ind need to get 251 in 40.2 overs or less.
If the Aussies score 225, India need to get 251 in 36.2 overs or less.
If the Australia are restricted to 249, India need to get 251 in 33.0 overs or less.
Senario 2: What if Australia score 250 batting first and lose, India win chasing 250
If Pakistan win in 40 overs, India need to get 251 in 41.0 overs or less.
If Pakistan win in 45 overs, India need to get 251 in 36.3 overs or less.
If Pakistan win in 49.5 overs, India need to get 251 in 33.0 overs or less.
Senario 3: If Aus lose chasing 250 and India win defending 250
If Australia are restricted to 200, Ind need to restrict WI to 195 or less.
If Aussies are restricted to 225, India need to restrict WI to 170 or less.
If Australia score 249, India need to restrict WI to 146 or less.
Senario 4: Australia score 250 batting first and India win defending 250
If Pak win in 40 overs, Ind need to restrict WI to 199 or less
If Pak win in 45 overs, Ind need to restrict WI to 172 or less
If Pak win in 49.5 overs, Ind need to restrict WI to 147 or less
But that's not all. Even a wash out in either of the games will see India kiss goodbye to their semi-final chances.
